《Free Lances》Side Story 51 - A Gut Feeling
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“Some wars are like a series of protracted battles, where every bit of gain must be fought for with blood and toil. Yet others might as well end after the first battle, with one side crumbling before the other almost entirely after a single loss. Most are closer to something in between, though.” - Karsten Von Unterbruck, dwarven mercenary turned noble, one of the founders of Knallzog.
“I got the report from Cadmus. The plan is proceeding well,” said Marshal Publius Cornelius of Caroma to the gathered commanders in his tent, which being the largest in the army’s encampment, also doubled as a meeting place whenever one was needed. Most of the people present nodded at his words, though a few, most notably his wife and Caroma’s other Marshal, had a slight frown on their faces.
“Perhaps a little too well,” commented Anni-Al-Bagh Barca with a shake of her head. Unlike her husband who commanded based on logic and strategies, she was always one to rely on her instinct and gut feeling instead. Over the decades though, all the other commanders had learned to respect her often accurate gut feelings. “Something’s nagging me in the back of my head about this, can’t say for sure why though.”
“Think the southerners can afford to give us a real fight, boss lady?” asked one of the commanders who hailed from Oiloma, one of Anni’s old subordinates, who were the only ones that used that title to refer to her. “They shouldn’t have that many people to spare though, not unless they want to leave their home base wide open to an attack.”
“I know,” replied the Marshal. Even under the worst case estimates, the Southern Coalition would be hard pressed to mobilize fifty thousand men out of all the territories they still had. They already lost the northern third of their territories to both Levain and Caroma as it was, with only a few areas still holding on in the center of the north-west region.
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Mostly because they were the furthest away from either of the Caroman thrusts into that region and the armies haven’t gotten there yet.
“Anni’s gut feelings have a disturbing tendency to be accurate, so we should consider planning a contingency in case trouble really does manifest out of nowhere,” said Publius in support of his wife. Most of the commanders gathered nodded at his words, with only a couple of the younger ones looking somewhat lost. “In your opinion, what are the most likely sources of trouble we could be facing in this expedition?”
“Outside interference,” stated Markus, another senior commander who had worked with Publius since his youth. “Our one ‘enemy’ is unlikely to be able to pose much threat to us even if they were to cast the dice into the winds and chose to gamble it all, but should other parties interfere, it would most likely cause quite a bit of trouble on our behalf.”
“Sevras-Galastine to the south has remained quiet so far, but if they suddenly decided to contest us over the Southern Coalition’s territory, they would be a major threat,” continued the old man. “Of course, that necessitates them going through the southern half of the coalition to begin with, so in such a case a quick negotiation to share the land should take care of the matter.”
“Good point,” affirmed Bartholomeus with a nod. He was another of Anni’s former subordinates who maintained their military career and rose to a high position after their nations merged. “I think we should look at the possibility of Anduille thinking we’re weakened and occupied by sending a large portion of our military to the south like this. They might choose to attack our northern border in that belief.”
“Aren’t they still suffering from the drought last year though?” debated another commander in the tent. “Do you believe that they actually have enough supplies saved up to mount a large-scale military campaign even after that?”
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“If it was the old Regent, I would have doubted it,” said Publius to that last question. “I have heard that the new Regent was more cool-headed and placed quite an emphasis on preparations to deal with the frequent droughts their nations often experienced, however, so we can’t discount that possibility.”
“Any chance of interference from Podovniy?” asked one of the younger commanders.
“We have considered that to be a low-probability case. The relationship between Podovniy with Anduille and Sevras-Galastine were neutral at best, and they were facing some drought and internal turmoil as well,” replied Markus. “Besides, Podovniy would have to go through Levain, which would be easier said than done, given the amount of defenders they have, not forgetting the fortifications.”
“What if they all worked together for some reason? Call it a hypothetical worst case situation,” said Anni all of a sudden after she gave the matter some thought. “If the Southern Coalition chose to fight and delay us here, while Anduille hit Caroma and Podovniy hit Levain, wouldn’t we be put into a very bad situation? Especially since both of us are here in the south.”
“What are the chances of all three of them suddenly choosing to cooperate, though?” asked another of the commanders present. "The Southern Coalition, I can see them doing so, as at this point they should be rather desperate and would cling to any chance of survival. Would that be enough to move Podovniy and Anduille however?”
“Brutus raised a good point, but just in case, I will send a letter to old Maximus back home to increase his vigilance especially over our northern border, and a letter to Chairwoman Estelle about what we discussed,” said Publius after some thought. “Do you all agree with this course of action for the time being? Or does anyone have anything more to add?”
“Let’s hope my gut feeling is wrong this time, but I don’t think we can really do much more without any idea what’s going to happen either,” noted Anni. “I agree.”
After the rest of the commanders signaled their approval, Publius gave them a polite dismissal as he busied himself writing the letters to be sent that very evening.
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