《THE APPLE OF SNAKES》xlviii. probability of dying

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Nerluce sat with his back to the door, focused on the unlit wick before him.

The sun was setting but there was still work that needed to be done. There was always work that needed to be done and never enough hours of sunlight to do it. Fire extended the day. It was a powerful and useful element. Some stories told that people had been utilizing fire since before they were utilizing Magick. Some stories said that fire was the last of the elements to be given to humanity to control.

All the old stories about fire were kept by the Hebikotis. Nerluce felt as though he'd read them all. But each held the same moral. Fire was young and as such, it was powerful and wily and arrogant.

Lyana came up to Nerluce and bent down, blowing the wick as though she were blowing the flame out, but instead blew it into existence.

Nerluce glared at her.

"What?" Lyana asked.

"I'm practicing," Nerluce said.

Lyana rolled her eyes and handed him a different unlit candle. "Well practice with this one. I'm trying to study for our stupid mathematics exam and math is even harder when you don't have light."

"I bet," Nerluce said. "I probably need to study for that too."

"We could work together?" Lyana offered. "Though, the last time we worked together, I don't know how much you got out of it." She sighed. "I think you just tutored me and didn't get to study any yourself."

"No, no it was helpful," Nerluce promised. "It refreshes my brain."

"Do you think Eko would like to study with us too?" Lyana asked. "I could go get them. They could tutor you while you tutor me."

Nerluce snorted. "Why don't you ask?"

"I will. While I'm gone, you should try flailing your arms around," Lyana said with a mischievous smile. "It's what you do to control the fire so maybe it will work to create it."

"Thanks, Lyana," Nerluce deadpanned.

She laughed and left their room.

Nerluce sighed as he turned his focus back to the candle. The months passed too quickly, much like the daylight. Nerluce never had enough time. The final exam was two months away and he wasn't any closer to lighting this candle than he was four months ago at the midterm. He didn't get it. He didn't know what he was doing wrong. Lyana had been able to do it forever. Eko had figured it out recently too. It practically cemented them as one of the next Seraphs.

But no matter how late Nerluce stayed up or how hard he tried or how badly he wanted it, he just... wasn't able to. He didn't know whether or not he would be able to. Even Coam hadn't been able to master this feat under Tutors. She had to fight for it.

Nerluce wondered if he would need to fight for it too.

Lyana returned to the room with Eko in tow. Eko carried a roll of parchment paper and a couple of their textbooks. Their eyes were ringed by dark circles and they let out a small groan as they sat down on Nerluce's pallet. Had they been overworking themself as well? Probably. Nerluce gave up on lighting the flame for the night and sat down next to them.

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"You alright?" Nerluce asked.

"Been better," Eko said. "I don't think I've slept a whole night in two weeks but..." They shrugged. "So what exactly is confusing you?"

"Mathematics," Lyana said. "Like.... all of it."

Eko furrowed their brows. "It's... Lyana we're doing probability. This has been the easiest unit in a while."

"Yeah, well, it doesn't make any sense," Lyana grumbled. "Like this one here: is it more likely for a man to have four daughters or one son, one daughter, one son, and then one daughter." Her face was pulled taut. "It should be the second one but Nerluce says that it isn't."

"It isn't," Nerluce said, again.

"It isn't," Eko confirmed.

Lyana let out a small distressed noise. "But- but it should be. Two daughters and two sons. That's- fifty percent of his children are of each gender. So-"

"You're overthinking it," Eko said. "Or maybe underthinking." They frowned slightly. "There is a specific order to it. In the second scenario, the man must have a son then a daughter then a son, and then a daughter. Each of those has a fifty-fifty percent chance of happening. The same thing for a pattern of four daughters in a row."

"So they are equally likely," Nerluce said. "Told you."

"Shut up," Lyana said. "And what about this question? Someone has three cups. Under one cup is a precious gemstone. Under the other two are rocks. The person tells you to pick a cup and you will have whatever is underneath it. After you pick one, the person lifts up one of the other two cups to show you what is underneath it. Should you change your cup?"

Nerluce's brows furrowed. "You're right about this one," he said. "It makes no sense."

"Yes it does," Eko said. "You should change your cup."

"But- why?" Lyana said.

"Because it increases the probability."

Nerluce made a face. "That makes no sense. If the person lifted the cup to show a rock, it would be fifty-fifty no matter which cup you chose."

"But that isn't the question," Eko scolded. "There is a one-third of a chance they will lift the cup with the gem under it. Therefore, overall, it is best to change your cup."

"Well obviously I'd change it if I knew I picked the wrong one," Lyana said. "But-"

"It's a stupid question," Eko said. "Don't think too much about it. Overall it benefits you to change your cup because the person might show you the cup with the gemstone under it so you'd want to change. Just... overall. "

Nerluce groaned. "I hate probability. How does it help Seraphs anyway?"

"If I knew, I would be the first to tell you," Eko said.

"Do you think that Seraphs gamble a lot?" Lyana asked. "I mean, that's all gambling is, right? Probability."

"Could you imagine?" Nerluce asked with a snort. "Aristide gambling? What do you think he'd play?"

"Probably one of those dice games," Lyana said.

"I think Taayir would be good at cards," Nerluce said.

Eko glanced between them and shook their head. "I am beginning to see why you don't seem to get much studying done," they said with a slight smile. "But... I'd bet the High Priestess is fond of cup games."

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"I bet she'd kick-ass," Nerluce said. "Those cheats would get careless since they think she's blind."

"Isn't she blind?" Lyana asked.

"Oh, is she?" Nerluce frowned slightly. "She doesn't seem to move around like a blind person. My grandmother went mostly blind right before she died. She'd swing her cane around and hit things like crazy."

"The one with the snake?" Eko asked.

"The one with the snake," Nerluce said with a sigh. "She was terrifying."

"I am beginning to see that," Eko said. "A blind old woman who walks around, yelling at people and hitting things with a stick all while wearing a giant white python around her neck is... well it is a bit of an image."

Lyana snickered. "You Hebikotis are weird."

"She ruled the Hebikoti Clan for nearly seven decades," Nerluce said. "I think ruling anything that long would make anyone weird."

"No," Lyana said. "You're weird too."

Nerluce pressed a hand to his chest in mock offense.

"When did your dear old grandmother die?" Eko asked. "I thought your father had been leading the Clan for... twenty or thirty years now."

"Yeah, about," Nerluce said. "I think he kind of just... wrestled her out of power. I mean, it probably wasn't hard. She was old and tiny and mostly insane so..."

"Wait, wait, wait," Lyana said, lifting her hands. "How tall was your grandmother? I've been picturing a woman similar to your ridiculous height."

"No!" Nerluce said with a scoff. "She was like... not even five feet and walked half hunched over. Though that might've just been the snake." He paused for a moment then shook his head. "Regardless, she was tiny."

Eko let out a breath that might've been something between a laugh and a scoff. "Your grandfather must've been a giant."

"Never met him," Nerluce said. "But from the portraits I've seen... you're probably right."

"Does your family have those weird family crypts?" Lyana asked. "Corbett mentioned that his family had one, once." She cleared her throat. "But maybe it's different for royalty and nobles? I don't know."

Eko frowned. "I thought Itorohians usually cremated their dead."

"Most peasants do," Nerluce said. "Itoroh... has a large population and we don't like wasting space on the dead. So if you don't have the money to buy a space, you burn the body, spread the ashes, and put up a small altar in your home with their name." He had faint memories of lighting incense and sitting before two plates of iron engraved with names. But the Hebikoti Palace had no such altars. "The Hebikotis have a graveyard. My grandmother is buried with her snake."

"I would not like to do battle with her in the afterlife," Lyana said with a shudder.

"Do... what?" Nerluce asked, eyes wide.

"Oh!" Lyana said, her cheeks turning pink as she rubbed the back of her neck. "It's a horse clan thing, I guess. We bury our dead in armor and with weapons so they can fight their way to an afterlife. The best afterlives are the hardest to get into. You fight with demons and evil and even other people who once lived."

"I can't tell if that's horrifying or not," Eko said.

"It's definitely horrifying," Nerluce said. "But... also kind... neat? I like the idea that you have to work to get into a better afterlife."

Lyana's laughed, but the pinkness had yet to fade. "Yeah, me too."

"I didn't realize the horse clans buried their dead," Eko said. "I guess... they have to but being a nomadic people..."

"We don't always bury and we never leave a marker," Lyana said. "It's more the act of putting someone to rest. That can be done by burying them, sending them floating down a river, or burning them. It's just that they're wearing armor and holding a weapon in our last memory of them."

"That's definitely nice," Nerluce said. "My people don't really do... the whole afterlife thing. Sometimes we burn or bury our people with their most beloved possessions so they'll be with them forever in their rest." He then turned to Eko. "What about you? What do your people believe?"

Eko frowned as they thought the question over for a moment. "We... well my family at least... believe in an afterlife but not one you get to take possessions to." Their frown deepened. "I'm from Preinill so I wouldn't say there is one set of beliefs that presides over the others. My mother always told me that if I do good while I was alive then when I die, I will be rewarded for it."

"That sounds nice," Lyana said. "I've always liked the idea that doing good will bring good back to you. But... I'm not sure if it holds up."

"I think it might," Nerluce said. "If you're nice to someone they might do something nice for you."

"But on a larger scale?" Lyana asked, shaking her head.

"Oh," Nerluce said.

She was right. Being kind to someone and getting kindness in return was everywhere. That was how people made friends, after all. However, their world was one of war and cruelty and genocide and never-ending blood. If a country was kind, then they would be torn apart. If a country was cruel... well they would be Itoroh, enjoying two centuries worth of prosperity. On a larger scale, kindness and cruelty rarely returned.

"I guess that's why it has to be the afterlife," Eko said. "But I've always thought it would be awful to finally get your reward and then be dragged out, forced back into the world."

"Do you think Kierli really is the Reincarnation of the First King?" Lyana asked.

"Maybe," Nerluce said. "But also maybe not? She's never said or done anything that made me think..." He shrugged. "I guess it really depends on how common reincarnation is."

"Well, if it's real for Kierli, it's probably real for everyone," Eko said.

Lyana shuddered. "I don't like that."

"Really?" Nerluce asked. "I kind of like it. The idea that... I won't end with me."

"I just don't like the idea that I've been someone else but I can't... remember it," Lyana said. "What if I can't remember all those people who loved me and that I loved. Or those people who I hurt and who hurt me. I just..." She hung her head. "I don't like it."

"I suppose that's fair," Eko said. "But I also suppose no one will ever really know."

"Yeah," Lyana agreed.

Nerluce just nodded.

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