One day in March 1957, at the newly formed Clark-McDonald-Rockefeller Company, the three founders of the company were meeting.

The topic of this meeting is quite simple, at least, when the meeting was initiated, both Clark and Rockefeller thought so. At this meeting, Clark proposed based on his previous experience that in addition to grain spot trading, they could also go to the grain futures market in Chicago to buy some grain futures.

U.S. wheat shipped overseas largely relied on water transportation from the Great Lakes basin, and at the time, Chicago, on the shores of Lake Michigan, was the most important grain distribution center. Here, there is the world's first futures market - the Chicago grain futures market.

Generally speaking, futures prices are always cheaper than spot prices, which makes buying grain from the futures market a little more profitable. Of course, through the futures market, farmers can also ensure that their income is relatively stable, and they will not lose money because of planting the wrong crops. They can also get money in advance, which is also a good choice.

In the view of Rockefeller and Clark, it is a very cost-effective way to use part of the funds to purchase futures grain, and it should be approved very smoothly. However, as soon as the plan was proposed, it was opposed by Scrooge.

"I don't approve of buying grain futures like this," Scrooge told Rockefeller and Clark.

Rockefeller didn't speak, and Scrooge knew he was waiting for his reasons. Of course, Scrooge couldn't tell him the truth. He couldn't tell Rockefeller directly, "I came from the hereafter. I know that next year will be the world's first economic crisis sweeping the world. The collapse of the food market began, right? However, in previous lives, Scrooge has always heard the saying, that is, "crisis, crisis, both danger, and opportunity". In the United States later generations, the foundations of the most influential conglomerates were laid in several crises. Scrooge had figured it out for a long time, and the crisis that was about to begin could also provide him with an opportunity. First of all, the crisis will start from the grain market, because the grain planting area in the United States has expanded too fast, coupled with the bumper harvest brought by good weather and rain, and hit Russia with an unprecedented bumper harvest, resulting in the supply of grain in the international market. The demand far exceeded demand, leading to a panicky drop in food prices. That year, Scrooge remembers, the price of grain fell by less than a quarter of its expected price, and many merchants went bankrupt. However, for those who foresee this, this is the opportunity to make a lot of money by shorting. Scrooge has been eyeing this opportunity for a long time.

"John, do you know how much more wheat is being cultivated near Cleveland this year than last year?" Since he had long eyed this opportunity, Scrooge had of course prepared his words to persuade his partners.

"I don't know the exact numbers," said Rockefeller, "but the company I worked for also deals in grain, so I know a little bit about the general situation. Affected by the strong grain prices in recent years, the cultivated area has expanded a lot this year. I guess it's probably a quarter more than last year."

"There's so much more in Cleveland alone, and I'm afraid the situation in the United States is similar," Scrooge said. "What's scarier is Europe...John, last year the international market, well, I was talking about the price of wheat in the London market. How much? What is the price of cotton and wool? You should know that.”

"I know." Rockefeller nodded. He's been keeping accounts for a long time, and he's very clear about these things.

"Then John, can you calculate if the price remains the same, which is more profitable for Europeans to grow wheat or grow cotton or raise sheep?"

This is not a question that can be answered in one bite. Rockefeller quickly took out his notebook and pencil and began to calculate. After a while, he replied: "If the land situation in Europe is similar to that of the United States, then, at least in the more fertile parts of the land, it will be more profitable to grow wheat than to grow cotton and raise sheep... Not only Europe but India as well. The same will be true... You mean, the price of grain might drop?"

"Yes, but I'm not sure yet," Scrooge said. "So, John, we're going to look first at what's going on in the U.S... Mr. Clark, we also need to know what's going on in Europe. You're England. People, there should be some corresponding channels in Europe, and it is up to you to understand the wheat planting situation in Europe, um, please pay special attention to the wheat planting situation in France and Russia." Scrooge said to Clark again.

"Well, I'll leave this to me," Clark replied, staring at Scrooge with astonishment. When Rockefeller pulled Scrooge in, Clark didn't take Scrooge too seriously—a child in his teens, even if he was a genius, how could he be so strong? Clark even though Rockefeller just couldn't get enough money, and this little guy who looked like his little brother had just the right amount of money and control, so he was pulled in by Rockefeller as a sheep. Now it seems that if the words just now were thought up by this little guy, then he is a genius. Although he doesn't own as much in the company as he does -- in those two months, he got another $500, which makes him still the company's largest shareholder. But with such a guy, can he hold the control of the company firmly in his hands as he expects?

"That's probably what Rockefeller taught him," Clark thought, thinking that was the real acceptable explanation.

"Because of such a risk, we blindly invest money in the purchase of grain, and if it is not good, it will lose everything. Therefore, we must first conduct research and make a decision. I hope that in our company, a kind of The ethos, that is: without investigation, there is no right to speak!" Scrooge shamelessly took the famous words of a great man as his own.

"Well, this sentence is well said! There is a kind of blind optimism in the grain market now. Many people do business not by careful analysis of the market, but by following the crowd. The more this is the case, the easier the market will be. There is a problem. I propose that we divide the work." Rockefeller took out a pen and paper and recorded Scrooge's sentence "No investigation, no voice", and said, "Scrooge and I go to Chicago. Find out what's going on there, Clark, you should have acquaintances in Europe, get in touch with them as soon as possible to get a sense of what's going on in Europe, without further ado, we'd better go right away. Once it's confirmed that things are as we deduced, we'll do a big What do you think?"

"What does it mean to be a big one?" Clark asked.

"That is to say, we use short-selling methods. First, we borrow and sell a batch of grain from others in the futures market. After the grain price collapses, we buy grain and return it. If the operation is good, this business will at least allow us to Make more than fifty percent of your profits." Rockefeller's eyes gleamed.

"However, the risk is not small," Clark said.

"Wealth and risk are sought! There are high-profit businesses in the world, either with high thresholds or high risks." Scrooge said.

Clark gave Scrooge another surprised look, "Even if the previous statement was taught to him by Rockefeller, the sentence just now came out of context, and it shouldn't be possible for anyone to teach it first. This is a genius, I just don't know if he has the luck of being a genius."

"As long as we are well prepared and the investigation is clear, there will be no problem," Rockefeller said.

"Okay, let's do that for now. I have some friends in England and I'll get in touch with them by writing right away. It will take some time, though - transoceanic correspondence is just too slow, and my friends It also takes time for us to collect this information. Your investigation will also take time, and I think we will know the general situation around May."

...

Unlike the Chicago that Scrooge knew in his previous life, Chicago at this time was far from the third-largest city in the United States with a population of several million in later generations. The standard is, at most, a county seat.

To say that the Chicago that appeared in front of Scrooge and Rockefeller now is a bit similar to those small county towns in China in later generations. The streets are very narrow, houses are close to each other, and there are construction sites and fire hazards for newly built houses everywhere. There is no plan for municipal construction, and the urban layout is messy. Scrooge knew that Chicago would not have a more general layout design until after the 1870 fire and reconstruction.

Along the shores of Lake Michigan, there are many piers where various boats are moored. A lot of grain shipped to Europe is from here. There is a road leading from the warehouse area to the dock area, and almost at any time, you can see horses and carts laden with grain walking slowly along this road. And Scrooge and their destination, the Chicago Grain Futures Market, were on one side of the road.

Scrooge and Rockefeller came to Chicago by train. In the 19th century, the speed of the train was relatively slow. Although it was not too far from Cleveland to Chicago, the train still ran all day. So by the time Scrooge and the others arrived, it was already afternoon.

"Now that the market is closed, let's stay here and see it tomorrow. I know of a hotel that is cheap, um, average, but clean," Rockefeller told Scrooge.

Scrooge knew that in addition to business, Rockefeller was, well, basically a bastard in terms of life. In later generations, there is such a legend about Rockefeller. It is said that after Rockefeller became a rich man, every time he went on a business trip, he always had to stay in the cheapest hotel when he was staying. So someone asked: Why do your sons live in the most luxurious suite every time, while you only live in the cheapest one? Rockefeller replied: That's because their dad is richer than my dad.

Therefore, if the conditions mentioned by Rockefeller are general, then it is estimated that it is general. "Well, when I get rich in the future, I can't live like Rockefeller. Well, I have to build a super-luxury yacht-like Morgan, and call a bunch of guys in the millionaire club if I'm okay. Go to the Atlantic for a 'Sea and Sky Feast' or something. That's the life of a millionaire. Otherwise, what do you do with the money?" Scrooge thought. However, if he was allowed to live in a comfortable and expensive hotel now, it is estimated that Scrooge would be reluctant because every penny now must be spent in places that can bring more money.