《Sect Leader》4. The Efficient Market Hypothesis

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“Oh Heavens,” the stout man said, peering at Jessica, “Are you the Elder that Jung spoke about?”

Jessica leaned over the table, though it was quite low. A question like that was usually some macho idiot trying to prove that he knew more than her. Of course, the tables that the disciples brought out came with sitting cushions. Disciples had brought it out for this meeting, and many villagers and disciples milled about pretending to do anything but listen.

“I am.”

“Heavens above,” the man whispered, leaning into a seated bow, “Elder… this is an honor.”

Jessica blinked. The boys were deferential but not this deferential. Was this stout man trying to pull her leg?

“That’s quite enough,” She said. Jessica saw Jung tightening his fists, “I’m Elder Jessica Kim and if you want to call me that then go ahead. I don’t think that you are a part of my school and I am not one to sit and wait on these ceremonies.”

“But it is her?” the thin woman to his left said. “The one summoned from the other world?” She too bowed from a seat she took next to the stout man.

“Gina.-“ the stout man said calmly. The glare he shot out around the room to the rest of the villagers should have been enough to cause five unintended fights and perhaps one pregnancy.

“Sir,” Jessica said, “To who do I have the pleasure of speaking with?”

To his side, Gina wailed.

“Patriarch Min Young, leader of the Min Clan. We are charged with the safety and keeping of Frost Haven and its residents. My brother was the leader of the school, Min Rhee.”

Min Young’s stout belly reminded Jessica of a strongman’s physique. He looked like he could pick up a car, but probably wouldn’t be able to attempt a jog. If Gina was his wife, Jessica stopped her train of thought on that topic quickly.

Jessica felt her core tested as she realized that someone had attempted to look with their spiritual vision. It was an unwelcome touch.

“Excuse me, Patriarch Min, but would you avoid… testing my capabilities right now? We have a business to discuss.”

If the look of surprise on the Patriarch's face was the chocolate ice cream, Gina’s smile was the sprinkles on top. She took satisfaction in him being uncomfortable, Jessica thought. Good, they must be married.

“Your pardon, Elder Jessica. If I have caused offense.”

This time his bow nearly scraped the floor. He might be a big boy, but boy was he flexible. Jessica made a mental note to not discount someone for their size in this crazy new world.

The group of villagers around the low table all waited with bated breath.

“Initiate An-Yong,” Jessica said, without missing a beat, “I believe that you have something for me as we begin our talks?”

Two folded pieces of paper were placed gently in front of her.

“I am deeply sorry for the loss of your brother, and anyone else affected by the calamity. I have good reason to believe that our healers are hard at work on the survivors.”

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“Heavens know we thank you for your help, Elder.”

“Help that we are glad to provide. Now I’ve had my initiate here go through our remaining food stores as it appears that the divine beast tore through that, burned it to the ground and I am very concerned that something similar has happened to Frosthaven.”

This time Gina perked up.

“Elder Jessica, I took a cursory glance and it is quite probable that the two town stores will be able to replace anything that the Sect lost. For a price, I would imagine.”

“I would imagine so,” Jessica said flatly.

Of course, everything had a price. Jessica wondered if the Sects books were balanced. She couldn’t just cut and paste records easily here. More than likely she would have to learn how to use a quill pen before long. Of course, she also might have to learn the language here. Perhaps it was a part of the gift she received, although if she thought too closely about how everyone just understood her speaking, and vice versa, it might cause her to question too much.

“The Sect should be able to bear the cost. This is a crisis after all and the clan wants to do the most that it can to reduce human suffering in this regard.”

Jessica recalled being nervous about speaking in public, but as cycling her core came more and more naturally, her confidence increased. The Jessica on the balcony might have been able to go through the motions and say those things, but this Jessica felt like a bit more of an idealist.

Perhaps, we could go and check out the vault, if there was one? Or the secondary vault, her brain told her. We could get lost in counting that, numb the pain of this change, and put our heads down until the figures match up?

She pushed that thought aside. Real people could starve or die.

“For the time being, why don’t you all stay comfortable,” Jessica said, gesturing to the refugees- no, the villagers.

The Patriarch bowed.

“The two proprietors of the general stores, are they with us right now?” Jessica looked about.

“Well one,” Patriarch Min nodded to his side, “is here, and the other I believe is convalescing nearby.”

Of course, it was Gina. Jessica made a mental note to speak frankly with her.

“I trust that we can work out something amicable?” Jessica said.

“Elder, that would be my greatest desire,” Gina said calmly, but her eyes were wild. Probably with the prospect of the greatest payday in her life. Jessica didn’t care if someone profited generally but it would be a bit macabre to deny someone aid in a crisis. She was certain that amicable meant profitable for Gina. That or Gina was too caught up in it to understand what amicable means.

Jessica moved to stand. The rest of the assembled villagers stood up with her.

“Thank you all. I think that we can take a brief recess.”

A large pile of golden coins was arrayed around the wall of the large vault. Interspersed around it were natural treasures of many varieties. Jessica spotted a floating cloud that looked like a children's toy but felt like a power switch as she reached out with her senses.

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Initiate An-Yong’s face was agape at the display and Jessica was certain that he’d never seen such a gaudy display before.

Junior Disciple Grace, bean counter apparent, watched the two, eyes intent. Jessica’s estimation of the Sect's greed has risen logarithmically the more she looked.

“How many coins would you estimate, Junior disciple Grace, are here?”

Jessica longed to have something like an excel spreadsheet she could tally up the coins with. Put them into a bank and have someone count them.

Grace brought out an abacus. A real-life abacus right in front of her.

“Roughly ten thousand, Elder.”

“And who mints the coins?”

Grace stared at Jessica.

“These well… they’re minted by the empire of course.”

Jessica looked about and saw a few different faces on the coins. People here could be vain as well.

“And this empire, they have a monopoly on printing the coins?” Jessica said.

For the first time, Grace started to sweat as her body flushed. Jessica considered how difficult it would be to mint her coins and use those as arbitrage. Flush some onto the market, increase inflation, destroy the economy so that only the goods had any value.

Her sect could not eat gold or treasure so these items were only useful in as much as they kept the school running.

Jessica bit her tongue rather than go into detail but it felt like she was in a vault guarded by a dragon. Were there dragons in this world? Could she get one to guard her gold? Jessica smiled.

Thankfully it looked like the treasure and gold could suit the Sect near term requirement.

“Junior Disciple Grace, how much does it cost to feed the school each…” She searched for the familiar term, “Week? Month?” Did they go by these timeframes?

“Elder, one week of food would be…” Grace shuffled her abacus.

Jessica wished that she could quickly compute some Fermi calculation for the amount of gold and treasures in the vault. Probably a bit easier to have your trusted agents count the physical money for you. Come to think of it, she would probably need to establish some trust, although up to now everyone in the school had followed her blindly. Had it been her belt? Or the mandate of the dying Elder Kang?

“One week of food would be about one hundred coins, provided that we can find someone to sell us the necessary food.”

Jessica realized that she probably needed to know a bit more about the economy outside the school and the closest town, and the empire itself but now she needed to know if Gina could uphold her end of the bargain.

And of course, if dragons were a thing around here. A girl needs a dragon to protect her vaults.

On her return to the tunnel that Jessica began to think of as her base, she had Grace run ahead. It would be easy for her to think about the greedy war profiteer, selling wares to both sides, and true she was probably a gullible new fish to all of the locals.

Jessica punched the stone wall of the alley hard enough to leave a dent in her fist.

“I don’t know how to be a hero,” She said at last.

Initiate An-Yong nodded politely.

“You are saving them, possibly from starvation,” He said,” Perhaps where you are from, people do not show such deference to one of your station, but here they do.”

Jessica looked at the Initiates kind expression beneath his fur hat and pressed his lips together.

“There is no reason for them to show me deference! I have not earned anything.”

An-Yong stood there, his face stone.

“Think about it this way, Initiate. Imagine you see Gina spending all of her hard-earned money on clothing. You think, ‘She must have lavish interests and be self-centered.’ Meanwhile, she is thinking about how this is her one time a year to splurge on some yak-fur coat that she has been eyeing. She is thinking about how happy it makes her feel. Anyone should be overjoyed to get a new coat, she thinks.”

A look of understanding crossed his eyes.

“We look at others and we see personality traits and make those traits explain their behavior, but when we look at our behavior, we see the circumstances behind that. My story makes sense to me, but I would have to explain it to you to make you understand. So the fundamental attribution that I give to Gina, telling myself that she is greedy, while perhaps she is… it would be better explained by the circumstances.”

An-Yongs eyebrows, the only hair on his face, piqued.

“Elder, so if I am to understand this, you’re thinking that perhaps she will make money on this…”

“But she will probably use that money to pay her suppliers and get more shipments or food.”

Jessica kicked the arched wall.

“In the same way, I don’t know that people care about me showing up to take the reins of the Sect. They just see a strong woman with a black belt and assume that I know all about this world. And I haven’t even done anything yet!”

“If this one may, Elder,” An-Yong said.

Jessica gestured for him to continue.

“They see you as hope. When the divine beast attacked, I had lost all hope. Hope in myself, hope in advancing as a cultivator. The beast probably swatted the Elders aside like bugs. With you... there is hope.”

Jessica nodded.

“Well, Initiate,” She said, “I hope that you can help me with my path a bit before we return.”

Pulling the manual out of her robe, she noticed a strand of hair fall from her bun. It would have been too easy to pin it back until she noticed the color.

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