Official Examination of Cataclysm Event

I have not created this review lightly, however evidence suggests a declaration will be required.

As everyone knows, if that occurs, I’ll be incapable of explaining my reasoning. This record will allow future event commanders to understand what prompted my action, or lack of it. I intend to by systematic in my assessment and will act based on data.

First, I wish to present the numbers that are playing on my mind and shaping my decision making. Everyone who reads this is undoubtedly aware of the statistical analysis that led to implementing the ‘Personal and Clone-Line Responsibility when Asserting a Cataclysm’ . As part of the mandatory study, you would be familiar with the perverted results that occur for a mis-declaration of a cataclysm and equally the cost of an event never being declared.

What troubles me is the range of outcomes of official cataclysm events based on elapsed time. This is demonstrated in the following table.

Time Declared

Number

Extinction

Civilised Society

Strangled Society

Mis-declared

Less than 0.5 Cycles

40

2

29

8

1

0.5 to 1 Cycles

120

10

57

49

4

1 to 2 Cycles

1010

114

213

675

8

after 2 Cycles

24511

19131

998

4379

3

There is no need to look at the numbers too closely, but we are currently just before 0.5 cycles and, as you can see, trigger the contingency at this point improves the outcome for the sapient race. From this time onwards, delays severely impact the likelihood of a successful transition for a sapient species.

Of course, my incentives are in the opposite direction, but I was aware of these risks when I signed up for the position. If I declare a cataclysm, then I die. It is a fact I’m comfortable with. However, if I declare early, like now, then all clone lines created over the last 500 events will also be destroyed. That is over three hundred of my closest siblings. If I wait till the end of one cycle that reduces to only twelve of my sisters.

That was why I took the role, as I never intended declaring a cataclysm before a full cycle had passed and if it was required at that point, I had the blessing of the twelve sisters who would perish with me. If I initiate it now, three hundred of my clone lines will die and that it is akin to murder. While I’m sure they would support me, that fact is that I have not been given permission.

The other consideration is the sapient’s (humans as they call themselves) whom are caught up in the event. I know species should not be a factor, but unfortunately in my mind it is.

I like them.

Their personality and social structure are the type that I prefer. They have individuality, internal conflict with empathy, creativity and logic basically the characteristics that all my favourite hosts demonstrated. I’m not the only one who feels that way. At this point, 119 of my colleagues have triggered an out of system intervention (OSI) and willingly accepted the significant cost of their action. That number at half a cycle is frankly incredible. Over the last thousand events at half a cycle, the highest number of OSI’s has been 19 with an average of two. Those 119 have all voted that humans are worth saving and for what I have seen I agree.

Then the question is whether this alpha physics catalysation is actually a cataclysm, whether it was indeed caused by an aberrant particle resulting in extra energy and all the problems that go with it. To do that, I plan to review the cases of every OSIs.

There are also macro conditions to consider. We are less than half a cycle in and 3 World Saver titles have already been awarded and in two separate locations! And the sixth aid mitigated another threat.

That is three!

In half a cycle!

When the usual average is one every ten planets!

That alone points towards the aberrant particle.

Nevertheless, given the gravity of the decision I will not jump to conclusions and instead review the evidence.

Naturally, the first Out of System Intervention that I am going to review to review is a friend to the older amongst us and a role model to the younger.

Out of System Intervention by RT073345 Courtesy Note.

Commander, for the first time in my history I have deemed it necessary to initiate an intervention. My host was killed by a surprise bite from a poisonous native snake, and I decided he deserved another chance of life. In the time I have been here, I have been compiling information on high energy spikes and even though I only have access to a small subset of the information you have, my model suggests that this is almost certainly a cataclysmic event being 99.9% confident to the sixth standard deviation. This is the most certain that I my process has ever generated this close to the event.

As you are well aware, when you nominated yourself for this position, I was initially going to vote against you. Not because you would do a poor job, but because you would make the hard decisions and I did not want to lose you.

You convinced me otherwise and now I wish I had possessed the courage to defy you. I know there is nothing I can say to convince you otherwise, and I’m sure you’ll make the decision you are comfortable with. However, please know that your continual existence in this universe brings joy too many of us.

All details of my modelling are included.

If your conscience wins over your self-preservation instincts, just appreciate I treasure the many ethical debates we have had and I will support you no matter which choice you take.

I trust you.

If I could cry like the humans, do I would have salty water running down my cheeks. RT073345 has not earned his reputation by making mistakes.

From reviewing the details supplied in RT073345 detailed observations, I can safely conclude that the area describes as the south-east corner of Australia has elevated mana storm levels consistent with a cataclysm event. Furthermore, since his OSI, his prior host has continued on his journey and was awarded a World Saver title (given it is RT073345 I’m not surprised) and suffered through an additional extreme mana storm, when I include these additional data points in RT073345 model his certainty increases to 99.9999%

My mind at this point goes back to that first table. While only forty events have been declared early and that is not a huge number that 30% improvement in civilised society from the action is immense. With those numbers, what confidence of an aberrant beginning do I need? If I’m being honest with myself and I always am 98% would have been good enough? To my 300 clone lines I’m sorry and I’ll review the other OSIs, but it’s pretty clear what’s going to happen.

Sometimes evidence can’t be ignored.