Chapter 1094: 1094

Indeed, the chances of black butterfly winning are very slim.

In the game of neurasthenia, the advantage of memory is the most intuitive advantage The black butterfly can’t be compared with the blind.

However, there is another factor that can influence the outcome, that is Luck.

In that round just now, although Feng bujuehao scored 24 points, as he said, on the basis of his “absolute memory”, such scoring is not too exaggerated in probability.

In addition to the 9 points that must be obtained, the remaining points can be regarded as the case of “five of the six flops with gradually reduced probability have been successful”, and the “gradually reduced probability” is reduced from about 20% to 7%, and then terminated.

So what he did in this round It can be attributed to the category of “good luck”.

There is nothing special about this, so it’s not “gambling”, it’s just “game”, which is considered as “boring” by Jue Ge.

In addition, when this round ended, his seemingly “good” luck actually changed the wind direction

Because all the cards turned out by the last three hands are “one suit has been revealed”; that is to say, when he finally changed his hand, the number of “two known cards” on the table top increased from three to six.

Plus the number of unknown cards on the table has been reduced When the opponent goes to turn over the unknown card, the probability of turning over to the scoreable card is increased to more than 15% again.

…………

The eleventh round, the turn of black butterfly’s turn.

After brother Jue cleaned the table, the number of known cards left is not much, so black butterfly is more confident about the colors of those cards.

In the first hand, she still opened a new card close to the known card according to her own rhythm.

As a result, this is a “two-way known” card, that is, “scoreable card.”.

Black Butterfly doesn’t have the ability to “remember clearly, but I can use it more slowly”. She will get points as soon as she has the chance to score.

So. She immediately went back to look for the other two new players And it worked.

“This lady has three points.” The referee’s announcement came immediately, “you can continue to flip.”

Next, the situation is still

Black Butterfly turned out another scoreable card and quickly converted it into points.

Next time. Still

In this way, the black butterfly equaled the score calmly, and Due to the decrease in the number of cards, it is also known that when there are only three pairs of cards, the probability of her turning to the scoreable card in the next hand is higher than 7%.

“Ah How is it? ” At this time. Black Butterfly smiled to Chueh Ge and said, “I don’t have no chance at all, do I?”

“Hum This gap in luck, as early as the beginning of the confrontation, I had psychological preparation “In a word Before you reach that score, you can do as many as you like. ”

“That score?” The black butterfly hears the words, thinks for two seconds, and then says, “Oh, you mean 33 points? ”

The black butterfly studied the rules of the game carefully before the duel, so she knew that 33 points was a very critical score.

According to the rules. After the two sides reveal the “twenty-five phases”, players can turn out two pieces of “blissful pure land” to end the game and enter the settlement stage.

Then, regardless of the outcome of the disparity, take the match where both sides have certain scores as an example Twenty five phases can be divided into twelve to thirteen, or eleven to fourteen.

In the case of 12 to 13, the score ratio is 36 to 39. At this time, the laggard side turns out to be blissful pure land, plus an additional 10 points. 46 to 39, you can turn defeat into victory.

In the case of eleven to fourteen, the score ratio is 33 to 42, at this time. The laggard side turned over the pure land of blissful Valley, with an additional 10 points, 43-42, and also turned defeat into victory.

That is to say, in this game, the underdog has fallen. If you want to flip, there is a prerequisite, that is to get at least “eleven phase”, which can meet the minimum conditions of flip.

In theory, the most ideal situation is: the round of 24 phases has been revealed on the table, and it’s the turn of the laggard party to turn over the card. At the moment when he turns over the 25th phase, he just holds 33 points in his hand, and then He / she opens the “blissful pure land” and ends the game.

For the laggard side, this is the fastest and best turnover mode. If we continue to drag on I’m afraid that the score gap will be gradually opened, because when there are not many unknown cards left on the table, the probability of turning to the scoreable card will be greatly increased, and the probability of turning to two “one-sided” cards in a row is not impossible. At that time, the one with stronger memory and fewer mistakes will surely stabilize the scoring rate of the opponent.

“Since you know.” The tone of the seal is still very relaxed. In any case, the opponent should know the meaning of the number. There is no need to marvel, “please work in this direction.”

“Ah Needless to say, I will, too. ” After the black butterfly answers, continue to flip

…………

By the end of the 11th round, the score comparison between the two sides was 24-30, with black butterfly leading.

After that conversation, black butterfly turned out two more scoreable cards and consumed only one pair of two known cards.

Then, in the last three hand flip She even turned out two “zero phase cards”, that is, a card with no known colors, and Also turned out the second “blissful pure land”.

So, at the end of this round, there are only two known pairs on the desktop, and The location of the two “blissful pure land” has also been determined.

At present, the total score of the two players is 54 points, that is to say, they have revealed “Eighteen phases”, and the number of remaining cards on the table is 48; among them, 20 are known, which are composed of 2 infernal Inferno, 2 blissful pure land, 4 “two phases are clear” cards and 12 “one phase is clear”.

The total number of unknown cards is 28, that is, 2 infernal and 26 cards.

That is to say, at the beginning of the twelfth round, the probability that Feng could not feel turning to the scoreable card in the unknown card is two out of twenty-eight, which is basically the same as the probability that he failed in the previous round, only about 7%

See here, someone will say, can’t he not turn the unknown card? Turn over three known cards, and then throw the same situation to the other side?

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The answer is – yes, but It doesn’t solve the problem.

According to the “flip rules”. Players have to turn over at least one unknown card in three consecutive rounds, otherwise they will be fined five points.

The purpose of this rule is to prevent players from wasting their chances of turning over the cards that have appeared before. As for why “three rounds in a row”. Naturally, it is considered that some people will “flip three known cards and fail to score” due to the wrong card memorization. In this case, those who fail in two consecutive rounds of attack will bear the risk of penalty points for the third time

Combined with the current example, if Feng does not feel that he chooses to turn over three known cards in this round to consume his turning right, then it’s the turn of black butterfly. The other side can do the same Anyway, black butterfly doesn’t matter. As a side with weak memory, she is very happy to see both sides constantly turn out old cards to help her consolidate her memory.

Besides, she is one of the “backers”. In the situation that no one is willing to turn over a new card, the backers at least have the advantage of “one card”, because the first attacker will certainly expose one more card than the other.

Of course, Feng was not the kind of person who would deliberately turn over known cards to defend.

Real gamblers and villains understand That won’t win.

For example, brother Jue’s game of guessing numbers is a game of golden sorrow If he was thinking about “what can I do if I only guess three or four numbers” or “what can I do if the other side really stays up to the seventh round”, he would retreat and avoid In the end, you lose.

The devil on the table will not respond to the weak. On the contrary, they will devour those people

To give up, to avoid, to think, to pray and to cry within, these actions will only lead to failure and destruction.

The person who can win is to be sure at that moment that “I can definitely guess more than five numbers”. If I can’t guess, maybe I will die, die It’s no harm.

Only with such will can we lead the “fortune” and call for “victory”.

…………

“Ah Sure enough… ”

Round 12, first hand. Seal the unknown card that can’t be opened It’s a picture of one aspect.

At the moment, he has two options: the first is a more prudent approach – to give up the renewal of the card, go back to two known cards. End your own round. In this way, only one known pair is added to the opponent and one unknown card is reduced. When the black butterfly attacks, the probability of first turning to the scoreable card is three out of 27, about 11%.

Another way to be more adventurous is to turn over another unknown card, if the second hand turns over the same suit as the first hand. He can score.

So What is the success rate? What is the risk of failure?

It can be calculated from the known cards that 22 of the 27 unknown cards at the moment are all pairs, that is, the cards with “one phase is clear”, 3 cards with “two phases are clear”, and 2 cards with “hell”.

If Feng doesn’t feel that he wants to score, he must turn over the “wide flat heel” that he turned over in the first hand of this round, and the probability is only about 3%; if he doesn’t turn over, he faces three possibilities

1、 He has an 81% chance to turn to the “one phase is clear” card, and then make a pair of known pairs for the other side, so that the other side’s next turn to the scoreable card is more than 15%.

2、 He has a 7% chance to flip to one of the other two “two already known” cards and give the opponent a 100% chance to score directly in the next round.

3、 It’s also a 7% chance that he’ll turn to hell, and this This is the best result, so that the probability of the other side’s drawing a scoreable card will rise to 11.5%, not much.

To sum up, no matter how you look at it, it’s better to choose a safe way here.

But

“In accordance with this trend, if I turn over one more page, it will be…” I can’t feel it. I’ve opened the second unknown card at the same time.

As a result, he turned to a “two sides are clear” card.

It’s impossible for him to score because he has turned his cards twice in this round and has different designs. Therefore, the picture he turned out has basically become the score of the other side.

“Well Look, luck